Land Lines – Week 40
New home sales surged in August, news like that is always positive for landowners in growth areas. The August rate is 33% higher than August 2013 and is a solid indication of the ongoing recovery in the single-family market.
The demand for land in growth areas will continue, landowners in these markets will maintain steady land values. Southern Salt Lake County and Northern Utah County landowners are seeing a significant amount of new construction and land development occur.
The Grass March Cowboys stopped in Utah last week, we posted a story about their message. The link is below in the Headliners section.
Many of you have received the 2Q Newsletter in the mail, if you haven’t here is the link: http://joom.ag/H55b. Q3 will be mailed out later this fall, if you would like to receive a print version click here.
If you or someone you know has been on the fence about selling their land, fall is a great time to start the process, marketing and selling a raw or papered land deal correctly takes time and experience. If you would like to schedule a meeting to discuss selling your property now or in the future please call. I look forward to speaking with you.
If you would like to receive the weekly land stats and headliners click here to subscribe. Past editions are available on the website under the Land Lines topic. Feel free to share with friends and associates.
Brooke Glaittli – Land Sales – 801-554-2332 – www.brookeg.com
Week 40 Land Stats
9/27/2014-10/3/2014: Salt Lake, Utah Counties and Davis Counties*
9 land parcels sold, 6 sold in week 39.
41 properties were put on the market, as compared to 31 in week 39.
YTD along the Wasatch Front**
4,978single family building permits have been issued, there were 4,823 issued as of week 39.
45 duplex/ twin home permits have been issued, the same as week 39.
108 apartment/ condo permits have been issued, 103 had been issued by week 39.
187 commercial permits have been issued (this number does not reflect all types of permits), 178 had been issued by week 39.
*Source WFRMLS **Source Construction Monitor
Recent UtahLandowners.com Headliners:
- Where do FAA Farm Values come from?
- Single and Multifamily Construction Spending Post Gains
- 1031 Timing, reverse exchanges can go in either direction
- Ranchers in the Grass March said they feel like they have been backed into a corner by the BLM.
- Land Lines – Week 39
New home sales rebounded in August, increasing 18% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, according to estimates from the Census Bureau and HUD. These gains were atop upward revisions for the July pace. The August rate is 33% higher than August 2013 and is a solid indication of the ongoing recovery in the single-family market.
The inventory of new single-family homes inched up to 206,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in August. Of this total, only 48,000 were completed, ready-to-occupy residences. In terms of months’ supply, the inventory of new single-family sales fell to 4.8 months.
Conditions remain positive for sales of new homes, as mortgage interest rates remain historically low. According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the average effective interest for new home sales was 4.25% in August. Rates have remained in this range since rising in late 2013.
Read the rest of the article here.
Monday’s Market Numbers
That anguished cry you heard from the capital markets during the week was the result of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) announcing that it would no longer invest in hedge funds, saying they were too time-consuming and too complex, and had produced unsatisfactory rates of return over the past one-, three-, and five-year periods. Since CalPERS is clearly the 800-pound gorilla in the room—it’s the largest pension fund in the United States—its announcement will have serious repercussions in the pension fund advisory, management, and investment businesses, as it will for the pension funds themselves as they look at a new pile of money they have to invest.
Also making a racket were the hedge funds themselves, as they tried to assess the impact of the CalPERS announcement on their business model. If the CalPERS announcement really excites the herd, watch out—a “flow of funds” may be in the offing.
Smarter people than us will analyze and reanalyze the CalPERS decision, and it will be debated and discussed at conferences and symposiums through year-end and beyond.
Could real estate be next? It’s unlikely—real estate returns over the one-, three-, and five-year periods have been excellent.
Of greater importance is the question of whether a “tipping point” can be reached—i.e., a point where investors’ patience will be more than “sorely tested” and they will strike with the only tool available to them: their feet, so to speak. Could this lead to a period of activist pension funds banding together to terrorize the investment managers of one or more “investment strategies” or theses?
If Size Matters
It is estimated that the top 100 banking companies hold almost $1 trillion of commercial real estate mortgages, allocated as follows:
|In $ (billions)||Percentage|
|Construction and land loans||113.9||12.0|
If we change the metric to overall holders of commercial real estate debt, the breakdown is as follows (as of December 31, 2013) in billions of dollars:
Monday’s Numbers: September 29, 2014
The Trepp survey for the week ending September 19, 2014, showed average spreads coming in as many as 10 basis points, with the average breaking the 130-basis-point barrier. The implied rate for ten-year, modestly leveraged commercial real estate mortgages equaled 3.89 percent—75 basis points lower than at year-end 2013. If you are waiting for someone to ring a bell and say that we have reached the bottom, consider the bell rung. Think twice about ignoring these record-low levels. A quote from Herbert Stein, President Richard Nixon’s economic adviser, seems appropriate and timely: In responding to a reporter’s question at a news conference, Stein was heard to say, “An unsustainable trend will not last forever.”
|Asking Spreads over U.S. Ten-Year Treasury Bonds in Basis Points (Ten-year commercial and multifamily mortgage loans for properties with 50 percent to 59 percent loan-to-value ratios)|
|12/31/10||12/31/11||12/31/12||12/31/13||This week (9/19/14)||Last week (9/12/14)||Month earlier|
The Cushman & Wakefield Equity, Debt, and Structured Finance Group’s monthly Capital Markets Update of commercial real estate mortgage spreads dated September 11, 2014, showed spreads increasing 10 to 15 basis points across the board compared with the prior survey (dated July 4) as lenders seem to be trying to make up some ground after the “great low spreads due to low Treasury yields giveaway” of the past few months. Even with the uptick in rates, it remains an attractive time to finance or refinance commercial real estate.
|Ten-Year Fixed-Rate Commercial Real Estate Mortgages
(as of September 11, 2014)
|Class A||Class B/C|
|Multifamily (agency)||75–80%||T +160||T +170|
|Multifamily (nonagency)||70–75%||T +160||T +165|
|Anchored retail||70–75%||T +190||T +200|
|Strip center||65–70%||T +190||T +200|
|Distribution/warehouse||65–70%||T +175||T +200|
|R&D/flex/industrial||65–70%||T +195||T +205|
|Office||65–75%||T +185||T +190|
|Full-service hotel||55–65%||T +250||T +270|
|Debt-service-coverage ratio assumed to be greater than 1.35 to 1.|
Year-to-Date Public Equity Capital Markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.24 percent
Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index: +7.28 percent
NASD Composite Index (NASDAQ): +8.04 percent
Russell 2000: –3.81 percent
Morgan Stanley U.S. REIT Index: +8.74 percent
|Year-to-Date Global CMBS Issuance
(in $ billions as of 9/29/14)
|Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert.|
Year-to-Date U.S. Treasury Yields
|U.S. Treasury Yields|